【海外ITニュース速報】Meta Platformsは数十億ドルのフリーキャッシュフローを吹き飛ばしている。マークのメタバースへの賭けは成功するか?

【海外ITニュース速報】Meta Platformsは数十億ドルのフリーキャッシュフローを吹き飛ばしている。マークのメタバースへの賭けは成功するか?

Meta Platforms Is Blowing Through Billions Of Dollars In Free Cash Flow. Will Mark’s Metaverse Bet Pay Off?

Meta Platformsは数十億ドルのフリーキャッシュフローを吹き飛ばしている。マークのメタバースへの賭けは成功するか?


General Magic, a tech start-up spun out of Apple to invent the future, closed its shop in 2002. The company’s free cash flow was only $316 million in the third quarter, down from $12.7 billion at the end of 2021. Notably, Argo AI announced it was shutting down after only five years. Notably, General Magic’s e-commerce platform, which launched in 1998, is aiming to replace the iPhone. Notably, it is the first startup to be spun out of Apple. Notably,


General Magicは、Appleを発明するためにTechの新興企業で紡がれ、2002年にショップを閉鎖しました。同社のフリーキャッシュフローは、2021年末の127億ドルから、第3四半期のフリーキャッシュフローはわずか3億1,600万ドルでした。AIは、わずか5年後に閉鎖されると発表しました。特に、1998年に発売されたGeneral Magicのeコマースプラットフォームは、iPhoneの交換を目指しています。特に、Appleから紡がれた最初のスタートアップです。特に、


Excited man wearing VR glasses outdoors In 1990, a new tech start-up was spun out of Apple to invent the future.


General Magic, as it was called, was a veritable dream factory.


Over the course of its 12-year existence, its founders—former Apple engineers who had helped bring the original Macintosh computer to fruition—developed technologies and applications that wouldn’t be in common use for several more years. Chief among them was a precursor to the smartphone, but more than that, the General Magic team foresaw the age of mobile computing in totality, complete with social media, e-commerce and emojis.

12年の存在の過程で、その創設者である元のMacintoshコンピューターを実現するのを手伝っていたFormer Appleエンジニアは、さらに数年間使用されないテクノロジーとアプリケーションを開発しました。その中の主なものはスマートフォンの前身でしたが、それ以上に、一般的な魔法のチームは、ソーシャルメディア、eコマース、絵文字を備えたモバイルコンピューティングの時代を完全に予見していました。

Alas, no one bought its products, and General Magic was forced to close shop in 2002, a couple of years before anyone was friended on “TheFacebook” and five years before Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone to the world.

残念ながら、誰もその製品を購入しませんでした、そして、一般的な魔法は、「The Facebook」で友達になった数年前に、Steve JobsがiPhoneを世界に紹介する5年前に、2002年にショップを閉鎖することを余儀なくされました。

Modern history is full of inventions and technologies that failed not because they were inherently flawed but because they hit the market several years too early. Before the iPad, there was the Microsoft Tablet (released way back in 2001). Before Bitcoin, there was Bit Gold (conceived in 1998).


Last week, autonomous vehicle start-up Argo AI announced it was shutting down after only five years, with financial backer Ford saying that commercialization of the technology is “further out than originally anticipated.” The question now on many investors’ minds is: Will Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse project follow the same path as General Magic and Argo AI, or will it go in the direction of the iPhone?

先週、自動運転車のスタートアップArgo AIは、わずか5年後に閉鎖されたと発表しました。Fordは、テクノロジーの商業化が「当初予想されていたよりも遠い」と言っています。現在の多くの投資家の心に関する質問は、マークザッカーバーグのメタバースプロジェクトが一般的な魔法とアルゴAIと同じ道をたどるのか、それともiPhoneの方向に進むのかということです。

Ever since Zuckerberg announced his company’s pivot more than a year ago (he would officially change the name from Facebook to Meta Platforms in October 2021 to reflect the new emphasis), the way forward has been challenging at best.


Over the past couple of years, Meta has generated billions of dollars in free cash flow (FCF), nearly all of it now spent on developing metaverse applications that, as of now, don’t appear to be profitable. Last week the company reported FCF of only $316 million in the third quarter, down significantly from $12.7 billion at the end of 2021.


The market has not been kind. A day after Meta’s earnings call, when Zuck asked investors for “patience,” shares of the company plunged a jaw-dropping 25%, its third-worst trading session ever. For the year, the stock is down more than 71%.


Briefly a $1 trillion company alongside fellow FAANG stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, Meta is no longer in the top 30 largest companies, its market capitalization having fallen to around $250 billion. In just 13 months, Zuck’s net worth has dropped by an unbelievable $100 billion.


Of course, none of this should matter much if you believe in the long-term opportunities that the metaverse may present over time. According to one estimate, a quarter of all people will spend at least one hour a day in a metaverse of one kind or another for work, entertainment or shopping by 2026. If that’s the case, Meta’s stock may look very attractive at its current price of under $95.


At the same time, there are signs that spending in the metaverse is stalling substantially. Prices for non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have collapsed, while sales fell 60% from the second to third quarters. Virtual worlds trading volume fell close to 92% between quarters, according to DappRadar.


Like others, I believe this slowdown is a result of our coming out of the pandemic. When we were all stuck at home, the idea of exploring virtual worlds was very inviting, and many young people were looking for ways to spend their government “stimmy” checks. Now, people may be more inclined to spend their money on analog experiences such as eating out, travel, live shows and more.


For investors who are still on the fence about Meta, it may be instructive to remember the last time a tech giant made a massive, ill-advised bet on a technology outside of its core discipline. When Jeff Bezos first came up with the idea for Amazon Web Services (AWS) many people called it risky and foolish. A 2006 BusinessWeek article was highly critical of the cloud computing project and suggested there would be no significant returns for many years to come.

メタについてまだフェンスにいる投資家にとって、テクノロジーの巨人がコアの分野以外のテクノロジーに大規模で賢明な賭けをした最後の時間を思い出すことは有益かもしれません。Jeff Bezosが最初にAmazon Web Services(AWS)のアイデアを思いついたとき、多くの人々がそれを危険で愚かと呼びました。2006年のBusinessWeekの記事は、クラウドコンピューティングプロジェクトに対して非常に批判的であり、今後何年も大きな利益はないことを示唆しました。

Fast forward to today, and Bezos now has a framed copy of that magazine “as a reminder.” In May, he tweeted that the service Wall Street initially scoffed at generated $62 billion in revenue in 2021.


In fact, AWS has steadily become Amazon’s main profit driver. Its operating income represented a whopping three quarters of the company’s total operating income last year. AWS, the company’s chief financial officer (CFO) said in 2021, is “arguably the most profitable important technical technology company in the world.” Bezos has always kept his eye on the future. In his very first letter to shareholders in 1997, he stressed that “it’s all about the long term” and promised to make “bold rather than timid investment decisions.” In 2005, he acknowledged that while these new investments were “expensive in the short term,” he believed them to be “important and valuable in the long term.” In 2012, he pushed back against criticisms that the company’s “heavy investments” in AWS and Prime were “at odds with being a for-profit company.” He added: “Take a long-term view, and the interests of customers and shareholders align.” The same could be said about Zuckerberg’s pivot into the metaverse. Time will tell, but I think that as long as Meta can stay afloat until the == appetite for the metaverse catches up with the technology, shareholders’ interests could also eventually align with Meta customers’ interests.

実際、AWSは着実にAmazonの主な利益ドライバーになりました。その営業利益は、昨年、同社の総営業利益の4分の3の四半期を占めています。同社の最高財務責任者(CFO)が2021年に述べているAWSは、「間違いなく世界で最も収益性の高い重要な技術技術企業」であると述べました。ベゾスは常に未来に目を向けてきました。 1997年の株主への最初の手紙で、彼は「それはすべてが長期だ」と強調し、「ti病な投資決定ではなく大胆な投資決定」をすることを約束した。 2005年、彼はこれらの新しい投資は「短期的には高価」であるが、「長期的には重要かつ価値がある」と信じていたと認めた。 2012年、彼はAWSとPrimeへの「大規模な投資」が「営利企業であることと対立している」という批判に反対しました。彼は次のように付け加えました。「長期的な見解を取り、顧客と株主の利益を調整します。」 ZuckerbergのMetaverseへのピボットについても同じことが言えます。時間が経ちますが、メタがテクノロジーに追いつく==食欲がテクノロジーに追いつくまで、メタが浮かんでいる限り、株主の利益は最終的にメタの顧客の利益と一致する可能性があると思います。

We now live in a world in which Elon Musk calls the shots over at Twitter. Come see what all the talk is about and join us by clicking here!

私たちは現在、Elon MuskがTwitterでショットを呼んでいる世界に住んでいます。すべての講演が何であるかを見に来て、ここをクリックして参加してください!

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Frank Holmes is the CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes… Read More Frank Holmes is the CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes